If the dominoes fall the right way, the economy should bottom out and start growing again in small steps by July, according to the December survey of 50 professional forecasters by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Investors seemed to be in a similarly optimistic mood on Friday, bidding up stocks by about 3 percent.
But in the absence of that government stimulus [at least $675 billion over two years], the grim economic headlines of 2008 will probably continue for some time, these forecasters acknowledge.“Without this federal largess, the consensus forecast for 2009 is for the recession to continue through most of the year,” said Randell E. Moore, executive editor of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which conducts the monthly survey of forecasters.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Coming Recovery Will Cost You $675 Billion
There are some relatively optimistic economists out there -- the ones who work for banks, corporations, and trade associations, says the New York Times: