Authenticity And Tape Gaps

In his rousing acceptance speech, Rep. Paul Ryan justified yesterday's "we built that" theme, built with a 43-word presidential tape gap, a cynical distortion of Barack Obama's July speech in Virginia. Ryan said:

Behind every small business, there’s a story worth knowing. All the corner shops in our towns and cities, the restaurants, cleaners, gyms, hair salons, hardware stores – these didn’t come out of nowhere. A lot of heart goes into each one. And if small businesspeople say they made it on their own, all they are saying is that nobody else worked seven days a week in their place. Nobody showed up in their place to open the door at five in the morning. Nobody did their thinking, and worrying, and sweating for them. After all that work, and in a bad economy, it sure doesn’t help to hear from their president that government gets the credit. What they deserve to hear is the truth: Yes, you did build that.

Obama's point was gratuitously professorial. Why pick a fight with the other side's idealization of job creators, especially when your greatest and perhaps decisive error was failing to make job creation a top priority from the beginning? Even so, he wasn't crediting government with being entrepreneurs' partner but rather our "unbelievable American system." If Republicans think Obama's a lefty, find some lefty language, and make fun of that. Don't stand up for honesty and authenticity and then cheat.

Is Paul Ryan Keynesian Now?

Rep. Paul Ryan is right about Barack Obama, the 2009 stimulus, and jobs:

It was President Obama’s first and best shot at fixing the economy, at a time when he got everything he wanted under one-party rule. It cost $831 billion – the largest one-time expenditure ever by our federal government.

It went to companies like Solyndra, with their gold-plated connections, subsidized jobs, and make-believe markets. The stimulus was a case of political patronage, corporate welfare, and cronyism at their worst. You, the working men and women of this country, were cut out of the deal.

What did the taxpayers get out of the Obama stimulus? More debt. That money wasn’t just spent and wasted – it was borrowed, spent, and wasted.

Maybe the greatest waste of all was time. Here we were, faced with a massive job crisis – so deep that if everyone out of work stood in single file, that unemployment line would stretch the length of the entire American continent. You would think that any president, whatever his party, would make job creation, and nothing else, his first order of economic business.

But this president didn’t do that. Instead, we got a long, divisive, all-or-nothing attempt to put the federal government in charge of health care.

It sounds as if Ryan is saying that Obama and congressional Democrats should just have devised a smarter stimulus. That's astonishing, since according to the ideology that he and Mitt Romney now proffer, government is incapable of investing wisely in the private economy. Instead, Ryan implies that a smarter, more experienced Obama could have built that. And yet under Romney-Ryan, we wouldn't get a dollar of new stimulus. So maybe the smarter vote is for an Obama who has learned from experience and a Congress that will help him do what Ryan says he wishes they'd done in 2009.

Simpson-Bowled Over

With pulls revealing a shift to Mitt Romney on economic and fiscal issues, Andrew Sullivan says Barack Obama might lose unless he embraces Simpson-Bowles.

You Think?

Headline on Kindle version of this New York Times article: "Jobs Numbers Could Affect Presidential Race."

Who Will Be The GDP President?

Republicans are hammering President Obama over the economy's anemic 2.2% annual growth rate, not that they necessarily have any better ideas. Donald Trump advocates more domestic energy production (although drilling is through the roof under Obama) and punishing China with a 25% trade tariff, even though protectionism causes depressions. The Economist says steady in the buggy:

During the first three years after the 1981-82 recession, the economy grew above 3% in 11 of 12 quarters and at greater than 5% in 7 of 12. Eleven quarters into this recovery, the economy has managed 3% or better only four times and has yet to reach 4%. But America's underlying fundamentals look increasingly strong. A gridlocked Congress and an inflation-averse Federal Reserve may try to gum up the works. But this morning's disappointing number is by no means a reason for despair.

Trump's right that stronger economic growth cures countless ills -- unemployment, deficits, debt, even Social Security and Medicare's woes. There would be less social and cultural anxiety as well. I plan to vote for the GDP president. Who will he be?

Mourning In Red America?

All Republicans and Democrats of good will welcome today's report of 243,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate. Still, Feb. 3 may foreshadow Barack Obama's Nov. 6 reelection. Mitt Romney would find it almost impossible to run against a robust recovery. As is always the case with challengers in good or improving times, the GOP may find itself in the position of wishing-without-really-meaning-or-at-least-admitting-to-wish for bad news -- a stalled recovery, an autumn financial meltdown in Europe, or anything else that can be left at the door of White House. Nine months is a long time. But these are the kinds of numbers that decide elections.

Three High Desert Days

Phil Hendrie, the radio host, said that you could tell a neighborhood was coming back when they put in a Starbucks and a Jamba Juice. There's neither in Barstow, California, at least in the part of town I wanted to see yesterday.

For a few blocks you get a flavor of old Route 66, the fabled cross-country blacktop that was superseded by the interstates a half-century ago. While I saw two Route 66 Motels, I fear the trademark is losing value. I wonder if my daughters, both in their twenties, have heard of it. Even if they have, I'll bet they'd blank on Burma Shave.

During this holiday week, I felt a little lonely as a tourist. I'd hoped to visit the Route 66 Museum, but it's run by volunteers and only open on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays. Not their fault. The information is probably available on-line. I'd driven in from Twentynine Palms, about 110 miles away, as an excuse to take a drive. After my visit, I wasn't surprised to learn that Barstow was recently ranked as one of California's ten poorest cities, with a third of its people on public assistance. There just aren't any jobs. Some economists will tell you that with the decline in manufacturing in the U.S. and throughout the developed world, intractable poverty such as Barstow's is what we get. It's a pretty spot, wedged between foothills and the desert. Its people deserve better.

I didn't mind driving back the same way, along state Route 247, for the same reason Monet didn't mind seeing the Rouen cathedral at different times of day. Driving through the desert, you find weather rather than the other way around, and I was in and out of sun and clouds the whole way. About three miles north of Lucerne Valley, the road became a causeway between lake beds that are usually dry and teeming with off-roaders. Either that, or they were alfalfa fields flooded with reclaimed wastewater. I'd have had to ask someone to know for sure. Maybe next time.

A few miles south, in Johnson Valley, I got plenty of information from the locals at a rock formation the kids are using for high desert IMs. When I drive back into Joshua Tree National Park later this morning, I'll check out some more rock graffiti at the unofficial Gram Parsons memorial. My three-day retreat comes to an end today, after a night when my most pleasant of hotels (free wireless and crispy bacon) was buffeted by the same cold system that's giving northern Arizona a white New Year's. I hope it was quieter in Yorba Linda. Kathy doesn't enjoy enjoy hearing the wind at night quite so much.

Joshua Tree National Park, near Ryan Mountain, Tuesday afternoon

Obama At His Best

Tim Rutten on the stakes in the Middle East for President Obama:

[He's] a president even more willing to put himself directly on the line for an agreement than Clinton was in Northern Ireland — a chief executive seemingly willing to risk his record for audacious hope.

On the other hand, while nothing but jobs and the economy may matter in 2012, healthcare and Middle East peace might be something on which to run.

Then again, probably not. In 1980, voters didn't care about President Carter's historic Camp David breakthrough, when Israel and Egypt made peace. They cared about inflation and jobs, and so they voted him out of office after one term. Obama knows that, which is why it's pretty close to astonishing that he chose to make dialogue between Israel and Palestinians a top priority within 48 hours of his inauguration and then renewed his commitment by driving the progress toward the new round of talks.

It's Obama at his best, and shrewdest. Middle East peace would further isolate Iran and be a boon for regional stability and democratization. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!

Well, In THAT Case...

"The Economist":

Perhaps the most unexpected beneficiaries of same-sex marriage will be state economies. The University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) reports that extending marriage to gay couples brings tourism, spending on weddings and licensing fees. Same-sex marriage in Iowa, UCLA predicted last year, would bring $5.3m to state coffers and $53m to state businesses. These hard times could use a bit more cash and celebration.

Economic Depression

Raw data on how stressed out we are.

2003...

...is when the seeds of economic disaster were planted, according to one view.

Turning Green In The Red

Bad times can be good for the environment.

Big Ben

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, son of a pharmacist and teacher from Dillon, South Carolina, was a superstar tonight on "60 Minutes," calm, down to earth, reassuring, and quietly inspiring. This is what I've been waiting for the President to say:

I'd just like to say to the American people is that I have every confidence that this economy will recover, and recover in a strong and sustained way. The American people are among the most productive in the world. We have the best technologies. We have great universities. We have entrepreneurs. I just have every confidence that as we get through this crisis, that our economy will begin to grow again, and it will remain the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world.

Scott Simon said he'd been trying to bag Bernanke for a year. No Fed chairman had ever done a TV interview before. I wonder if the second most powerful economic actor in the U.S. broke precedent and spoke up because he felt, until last week, No. 1 had been talking the economy down.

Why We Need Reporters

For perspective. Honesty. Irony. Memory. Sheer joy in the paradoxes of politics. For instance, the AP's Tom Raum and Jim Kuhnhenn, reporting on the Obama administration's overdue but welcome optimism offensive:

On Friday, the president called on Americans to keep "focused on all the fundamentally sound aspects of our economy." The phrase had a familiar ring. During the heat of the presidential campaign last September, Obama ridiculed rival John McCain when he declared, "The fundamentals of our economy are strong."

It's hard to avoid the impression that the President realized that as a barometer of the national mood, he was running three days behind the stock market.

Dreams And Nightmares

The baby boomers, before Sept. 15: "You don't turn your dreams over to the authorities at age 60," said Dennis Hopper in this age-defying ad for Ameriprise Financial (no longer on the air, as far as I can see). "See, the thing about dreams is, they don't retire":



The baby boomers, after Sept. 15: Don't retire, indeed. Bruce Hosking, 61, who retired two years ago as a photographer for the Tampa Tribune:

“My nightmare would be (that) I’d be at the end of the checkout line asking you, ‘Paper or plastic?’” he said. “This year is either going to make or break us. If the economy doesn’t turn around, we’re going to be with the rest of the people who face the possibility of starting to sell off our valuables to stay alive.”

Obama's Errors

Michael Gerson on the risk that President Obama and we are running together thanks to his massive move to expand the federal government:

"It's not smart to say this economy can't recover," says economist and author David Smick. If the pipeline of credit is somehow unclogged, the Federal Reserve has provided plenty of money for there to be a quick recovery. Americans will eventually need to buy houses or cars again.

Clearly this is what President Obama hopes and expects. It would probably solidify eight years of political dominance. But there is one problem. The markets do not appear to find his economic approach remotely credible. "What we are seeing," says Smick, "is $3 trillion in revenues for $4 trillion in spending. An honest budget? Give me a break." Even more important, the markets have little confidence in the administration's sketchy bank bailout plan. It has been the largest, early mistake of the Obama presidency to focus on expensive reforms of health and energy before convincing markets that the financial sector will be fixed -- the achievement on which all else depends.

Gambling With Liberalism's Future

Ross Douthat says that President Obama's popularity will diminish dramatically, as will liberalism's prospects, without an economic recovery:

If you're running enormous deficits and don't have any economic growth to show for it, it doesn't matter how popular your social-spending programs are in the short run, as more than a few ex-Latin American leaders will be happy to attest. And what does make the Obama strategy misguided is that it looks increasingly like a substitute for a depression-fighting strategy - and what's worse, a substitute that has the potential to actually make matters worse, when Obama, liberalism, and America all desperately need things to get better.

Barack's Christmas Gift: Seven More Years?

One of Andrew Sullivan's readers says there may be something nice in our stocking in December:

The asset bubbles in housing and equities are maybe three-quarters deflated, and are starting to show some signs of bottoming. They both continue to descend at around 10% a month and should hit bottom around the summer. Meanwhile, there have already been a couple of $500+ billion rounds of recapitalizations of the banks, after which they shockingly discover that it wasn't enough, and return for another tranche. I would expect another one or two.

Couple this with the dramatic drop in the price of oil, which acts as a far larger stimulus to the economy than any of the congressionally allocated funds, and I think a whiff of recovery will be in the air by the 2009 holidays. Considering the staggering scale of the housing bubble and the near collapse of the financial markets last year, that's just amazing.

If he or she is right, then President Obama will look like a genius, his big-government moves (whether or not they worked) will be eagerly and hungrily validated by journalists and historians, and the GOP comeback in the '10 midterms will be inoperative. Ain't politics grand?

Let's Check The Federalist Papers And See

E. J. Dionne, Jr. crystallizes the budget debate:

The central issue in American politics now is whether the country should reverse a three-decade long trend of rising inequality in incomes and wealth.

Politicians will say lots of things in the coming weeks, but they should be pushed relentlessly to address the bottom-line question: Do they believe that a fairer distribution of capitalism's bounty is essential to repairing a sick economy? Everything else is a subsidiary issue.

Fair-Market Friends

In a Sunday New York Times article about individuals and families managing the transition from executive to so-called survival jobs, this poignant note about human nature:

[Ame Arlt's] new job at HometownQuotes pays $10 to $15 an hour and has mostly entailed data entry. But even though she has parted ways with some friends because she is no longer in their social stratum, Ms. Arlt said she was glad she was no longer sitting at home, “thinking, ‘Who have I not heard from today?’ ”