Democracy, Peace, And War

"The Economist" reminds us that Egypt's peace with Israel was the desire and work of Anwar e-Sadat, not the Egyptian people, so more Egyptian democracy will mean a harder line toward Israel. And then there's America's devotion to Israel, which the magazine's Lexington columnist chalks up to shared political values, sentimentality, and evangelical Christians hoping to accelerate the parousia. Put it all together, and:

Israeli fears of abandonment look unwarranted. America will be faithful. But it will have to pay a higher price for its fidelity in an Arab world whose leaders no longer dare to ignore the preferences of their people. The best way to escape this trap would be for America to win the Palestinians their state. In that event, Arabs in general might be willing to make a people’s peace with Israel. But it was hard enough to negotiate a compromise when the autocrats were in charge. Finding one the masses accept will be harder still.

If a post-Mubarak Egypt means Israel will have to give the Palestinians more, it may just as well decide to give nothing and wait for the next war.

Shades Of Grey In Egypt

"Joe the Fiance":

[In Egypt] black and white categorizations of the repressive government and the righteous street give way to multiple shades of grey. The Muslim Brotherhood, proud assassin of peacemaker Anwar Sadat, is a major stakeholder of the uprising. Mubarak’s Egypt has been a safe and stable, if corrupt, puppet regime. The Egyptian military, largest ground force in the region with 1.3 million troops, has impeded unrest in Gaza, cut arms smuggling and stood alongside the Turkish Army as a bulwark against Iranian or Syrian aggression. That and they have so far been blessedly restrained with their lethal capacities and seem intent to protect and shepherd the people above all.

Why Peace Makes Sense For Egypt

Matthew Yglesias thinks a democratic Egyptian government -- indeed any rational Egyptian government -- would be inclined to keep the peace with Israel:

The peace agreement with Israel was signed by Anwar Sadat for perfectly sound reasons of state and its been maintained for thirty years for equally sound reasons of state. Egypt, unlike Saudi Arabia or Iran, is actually adjacent to Israel so if it’s not at peace with Israel it’s at war—in a non-theoretical way—and war with Israel is not in the interests of the Egyptian public or state. And I think that ultimately paying attention to reasons of state will shed more light on the future course of Egyptian policy than will attempting to parse the theological musings of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Nixon Props

In "West Wing" 2:17 -- an episode in which a silver-maned senator who looks a lot like former Sen. John Warner, an ex-Nixon advance man, conducts an epic filibuster -- Bartlett aides Josh, Toby, and Sam caucus in Josh's office. On the wall behind his head, you can see a photo of Presidents Reagan, Carter, Ford, and Nixon that was taken in the White House in 1981 before the three formers departed for Anwar Sadat's funeral.